Test-Burner Success Criteria
The specific, measurable outcomes the ~2032 test burner must produce to justify a commercial decision around 2036.
What success means
The test burner succeeds if it converts the four gates from projections into data. Success is not a single burn; it is a campaign that measures the plug, the regime, the conversion, and component behaviour under real conditions.
Explicit thresholds
- Regime extrapolation reduced from 166–830x to a validated band
- Plug stress margin demonstrated at or near 26.49 T
- DEC efficiency within the modelled uncertainty range
- Maintenance intervals estimated from real wear data
What failure teaches
If a criterion is missed, that is a finding that reshapes the commercial design or its schedule — not a result to bury. The criteria exist so success and failure are both legible in advance.
Writing the criteria in advance means success and failure are both legible before the machine runs, which is the point. A missed criterion is not an outcome to bury; it reshapes the commercial design or its schedule. Each threshold ties directly to a gate — regime band, plug margin, conversion efficiency, measured wear — so the campaign's results map cleanly onto the ~2036 decision.