The Availability Improvement Roadmap
From modelled 0.86-to-0.995 toward trustworthy uptime: the sequence of redundancy, operating hours, and honest positioning against Tier III.
The starting point
Modelled availability of 0.86–0.995 is 30–100x short of Tier III (0.99982). No design change alone closes that; it takes operating hours from real machines. The roadmap therefore front-loads learning and redundancy, and is candid that early units are not sole Tier-III sources.
Sequence
- Design in redundancy and modular replacement from the first unit
- Instrument everything so outages become predictable and planned
- Characterise component life under the 5.44% neutron fraction
- Accumulate fleet hours; remove the failure modes they reveal
Honest end state
The credible near-term goal is characterised, improving availability paired with grid or storage — not a Tier-III guarantee. Overpromising here would contradict our own model and erode trust.
The roadmap front-loads learning because availability is the one gate that cannot be closed by analysis at all. Redundancy and instrumentation raise the floor immediately, and component-life characterisation under the 5.44% neutron load sharpens the estimates, but only accumulated fleet hours remove the failure modes that separate 0.86–0.995 from Tier III. We say so plainly rather than implying a paper path to 0.99982.
See the availability gate and component lifetime.