Gate Two in Depth: A Regime Beyond Any Device
The plug plasma sits 166 to 830 times beyond the operating point of any mirror ever run, so its behaviour cannot be post-dicted from existing data.
The extrapolation problem
Confidence in plasma performance normally comes from post-dicting operated machines and extrapolating modestly. The Aegis plug asks for an operating point 166–830x beyond the envelope of any tandem mirror that has ever run. At that distance, no code can be said to be validated for the regime; the prediction is an extrapolation, not a fit.
Why distance matters
Transport, stability, and micro-instability physics can change character across such a span. A model tuned to today's devices may miss loss channels that only appear at the Aegis point. This is why we call the plug performance un-post-dictable today rather than uncertain-but-likely.
What could close it
- Stepwise experiments that walk the regime outward and shrink the extrapolation
- Cross-code benchmarking with explicit uncertainty bounds
- A test burner around 2032 that operates far closer to the design point than any prior mirror
An extrapolation of this size is qualitatively different from ordinary uncertainty. Within the range of operated devices, a validated code can be trusted a little beyond its data; at 166–830x, the physics itself may change character, introducing loss channels no current model represents. That is why we describe the plug performance as un-post-dictable today rather than merely uncertain.