Closing the Regime Gate
Shrinking the 166-to-830x extrapolation by walking the operating point outward through staged experiments and disciplined cross-code benchmarking.
The strategy: shorten the reach
You do not close an extrapolation gate by asserting the model is right; you close it by shortening the distance the model must reach. Each experiment that operates closer to the Aegis point reduces the 166–830x multiplier and re-anchors the codes.
What the experiments must produce
- Measured transport and stability at progressively higher plug parameters
- Explicit uncertainty bounds, not point predictions
- Identification of any loss channels that appear only at high parameters
- Re-validated codes at each step before the next extrapolation
Honest limit
Until such data exists, the plug regime remains un-post-dictable. The test burner around 2032 is the first machine intended to operate near the design point; commercial confidence around 2036 depends on what that machine measures.
The reason to walk the regime outward rather than leap to it is diagnostic, not cautious. A single jump to the design point would produce data no code predicted and teach little about why; incremental steps let each discrepancy be understood and fed back before the next step. The final extrapolation should be short enough that a technical reviewer would accept it.