What Could Move the Dates

The 2032 and 2036 targets depend on breeder progress, physics results, high-field magnets, and helium-3 — any of which can move them.

Honest about the schedule

The MetroVolt timeline is a plan, and plans for first-of-their-kind machines move. Rather than defend fixed dates, it is more useful to name what would move them — so a reader can judge the schedule against real dependencies.

Direction of the risk

Most of these push dates later, not earlier. The breeder schedule is the largest single lever, because the burner’s readiness is built on breeder results. A confinement shortfall is the largest physics lever, because it can force a redesign rather than a delay. Helium-3 constrains the fleet more than the test unit.

• Breeder delay → burner delay (inherited maturity).
• Confinement shortfall → redesign, not just delay.
• Magnet or DEC lag → later test or commercial dates.
• Helium-3 → constrains fleet timing specifically.