Resource Adequacy Basics

Resource adequacy is the assurance that enough firm capacity exists to meet demand in all but the rarest hours; firm generators are its backbone.

Keeping the lights on, statistically

Resource adequacy is measured with metrics like loss-of-load expectation, the expected number of hours per year that demand exceeds available supply. Planners size the fleet so that number stays below a small target, often a fraction of a day per decade. Meeting it requires firm capacity that is present during the tightest hours.

Firm dispatchable resources dominate adequacy planning because their contribution is predictable. Variable resources contribute in proportion to their capacity credit, which falls as more of them are added and their output correlates. The burner (MetroVolt) is designed to add high, weather-independent adequacy.

Where the burner helps and where it does not yet

MetroVolt's weather independence and steady-state design suit adequacy planning. Two gates limit today's contribution: availability (0.86 to 0.995 vs 0.99982 Tier III) constrains single-unit reliability, and He-3 fuel demand roughly 400 times domestic supply constrains how large a fleet can actually be fuelled without the breeder-bred and lunar pathways.

Honest position: the architecture is a strong adequacy candidate on paper, contingent on closing the availability and fuel gates after the ~2032 test unit.