What Is Simulated vs What Is Demonstrated

Hyperion is entirely a design-and-simulation study today; nothing here is hardware-demonstrated, and the record labels every claim with which of those two it is.

A hard line between the two

There is a category difference between a number that came out of a code and a number that came out of a machine. The breeder (Hyperion) program is, at this date, on the simulated side of that line for every quantity. The value of stating this plainly is that it tells a reader exactly how much weight each figure can bear.

Simulated

Everything: the equilibrium and its negative triangularity of delta -0.30, the confinement and gain estimate, the neutron budget, the breeding blanket behavior, and the product yields near 4 kg/yr tritium class plus 1.97 kg/yr helium-3. These are computed from models with stated assumptions and stated uncertainties.

Demonstrated

Nothing, in the sense of full-system fusion hardware. Individual technologies (REBCO conductor, vacuum systems) exist in industry, but the integrated breeder has not been built. First-of-a-kind first tritium near 2030 is the first hardware event that will move specific claims from the left column to the right. Until then, the honest reading of every headline number is: this is what the model says the machine should do.

The line is not permanent. It is a ledger that FOAK begins to move, entry by entry, as measurement replaces prediction. The purpose of drawing it sharply now is so that later movement is legible: when a quantity crosses from simulated to demonstrated, the record can say exactly which one and on what evidence, instead of a vague overall claim of progress.

This page describes a design-and-simulation study, not a built machine. Construction of the breeder (Hyperion) begins Q2 2027; first-of-a-kind first tritium is targeted near 2030. No hardware net-gain claim is made before FOAK.