Pre-Registered Prediction: Confinement

The breeder commits to a confinement-time prediction and states the threshold below which the Q_sci 3.076 gain case is refuted.

The prediction

The breeder (Hyperion) gain figure, Q_sci 3.076 at 85.0 MW of fusion power, depends on the energy confinement time. The record pre-registers a predicted confinement time at the design point, derived from the transport model and cross-checked against the ST database and the ITER-basis scaling.

The falsifier

The commitment includes an explicit threshold: a measured confinement time below a stated fraction of the prediction refutes the gain case as designed. If FOAK confines that poorly, Q_sci 3.076 is not reachable at the design inputs, and the record will say the prediction failed rather than re-fitting the model to the disappointing number.

# Pre-registered confinement test (schematic)
tau_pred = TAU_E_DESIGN          # published before FOAK, DOI-stamped
tau_fail = 0.?? * tau_pred       # stated refuting threshold
def verdict(tau_meas):
    if tau_meas >= tau_pred:   return 'confirmed'
    if tau_meas <  tau_fail:   return 'REFUTED: gain case fails'
    return 'partial: design margin eroded, re-examine'

Why state a losing condition

Naming the value that would prove the design wrong is what makes the confirming case meaningful. A prediction that no possible measurement could break carries no information. The confinement falsifier converts FOAK from a demonstration into a genuine test.

This page describes a design-and-simulation study, not a built machine. Construction of the breeder (Hyperion) begins Q2 2027; first-of-a-kind first tritium is targeted near 2030. No hardware net-gain claim is made before FOAK.