Pre-Registered Prediction: Tritium Breeding

The breeder commits to a net-TBR band measurable at FOAK and names the value below which tritium self-sufficiency is refuted.

The prediction

The breeder (Hyperion) studies TBR as a lever at 1.1, 1.5, and 1.8, with the local-vs-net gap open at the 1.8 target. The pre-registered prediction is a net TBR band that FOAK tritium accounting should measure, stated together with the realistic-geometry assumptions behind it.

The falsifier

The falsifier is a measured net TBR below the value required for self-sufficiency given the fuel-cycle losses. If FOAK breeds below that line, the record will report that tritium self-sufficiency at the design is refuted — not that the target was 'nearly' met. Because self-sufficiency is already flagged as unproven, this prediction is where that gate is put to the test.

# Pre-registered net-TBR test (schematic)
TBR_needed = 1.0 + losses_fraction   # closure with margin
def verdict(tbr_net_meas):
    if tbr_net_meas >= TBR_needed: return 'self-sufficiency supported'
    return 'REFUTED: net breeding below closure'

Honest about what FOAK can measure

FOAK first tritium near 2030 begins the accounting; a defensible net-TBR measurement requires integrated operation over time, not a single shot. The prediction therefore specifies the operating interval over which the tritium balance is to be judged, so the falsifier is testable and not evaded by short runs.

This page describes a design-and-simulation study, not a built machine. Construction of the breeder (Hyperion) begins Q2 2027; first-of-a-kind first tritium is targeted near 2030. No hardware net-gain claim is made before FOAK.