Last-Mile Fuel Delivery Risk
The final leg of fuel delivery concentrates risk because it is the least flexible, most observed, and hardest-to-reroute part of the chain.
Why the last mile is worst
Upstream links in a fuel chain can often be rerouted, buffered, or duplicated. The last mile, the final approach to a specific site, usually cannot. There are few roads, the destination is fixed, and the pattern is observable. This makes the last mile the highest-exposure segment per unit of fuel delivered.
Because the last mile is the least flexible link, it benefits most from removing the delivery entirely. On-site generation with rare resupply reduces last-mile events to a minimum, which is where the exposure is concentrated.
Interaction with siting
Site placement is often constrained by mission, terrain, and access, which limits last-mile flexibility further. A site chosen for its mission value may sit at the end of a single vulnerable approach. Reducing its fuel dependence is one of the few ways to lower last-mile risk without moving the site.
- Upstream links are reroutable; the last mile usually is not
- Last-mile events are the highest-exposure per unit fuel
- Removing deliveries collapses last-mile risk
- Mission-driven siting often locks in last-mile exposure
Because the last mile is fixed and observable, it is also the segment where timing patterns are hardest to disguise. Deliveries must arrive at a working site on a cadence set by consumption, so an observer can infer the schedule from the load itself. Removing routine deliveries denies that inference. Rare, irregular resupply is far harder to pattern than a steady operational cadence.
The generators that could minimize resupply are design-and-simulation studies subject to the honest gates.