Production-Rate Scaling: FOAK to NOAK to BOAK
A single first-of-a-kind machine proves the pathway; production rate grows as later units (NOAK, BOAK) follow, turning a demonstration into a supply.
From one machine to a rate
Supply security is about a sustained rate, not a single delivery. The program is staged: a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) breeder proves first tritium around 2030; next-of-a-kind (NOAK) and best-of-a-kind (BOAK) units follow, each intended to be built faster and to add to the aggregate production rate.
Rate versus level
A held inventory needs a make-up rate equal to ~5.5%/yr of its level plus withdrawals. One machine contributes part of that rate; multiple units contribute more, and independent units add resilience because no single outage stops make-up entirely. The path to a durable supply is additive.
- FOAK proves the pathway and first tritium (~2030).
- NOAK/BOAK add rate and are intended to build faster.
- Independent units add resilience, not just capacity.
Learning between units
The staged program is also a learning program. A first-of-a-kind unit surfaces the practical issues that only appear in hardware, and those lessons feed the design and construction of the units that follow. This is why later units are expected to be built more quickly and to operate more predictably: they inherit resolved problems rather than rediscovering them. Aggregate supply therefore grows not just because there are more machines, but because each is intended to be a better instance of the one before it — a rate that improves as the program matures past FOAK.
No net-gain or delivered-supply claim is made before FOAK. The rates implied by multiple units are forward-looking design targets; the program's honesty rests on proving one machine before promising a fleet.