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Surrogates & Uncertainty

Global vs Local Sensitivity

Local sensitivity measures response to small perturbations at one point; global sensitivity apportions output variance across the whole input range.

Two different questions

Local sensitivity analysis asks how the output changes for an infinitesimal change in an input at a nominal point, captured by a partial derivative. Global sensitivity analysis asks how much each input contributes to output variability across its entire uncertainty range, accounting for interactions and nonlinearity. They answer different questions and can disagree sharply.

Local methods

Kronos motion — operating point

Global methods

When they diverge

For a nonlinear or non-monotone response, a locally flat input can be globally important if the response steepens elsewhere, and a locally steep input can be globally minor if it varies over a narrow range. Interactions are invisible to one-at-a-time local analysis but explicit in Sobol total-effect indices. Relying on local sensitivity alone risks mis-ranking inputs.

Choosing

Use local analysis for optimization, control, and quick diagnostics near an operating point. Use global analysis to prioritize which uncertainties to reduce, to justify fixing an input at a nominal value, or to communicate robustness. In practice, cheap local gradients often screen inputs before a more expensive global study confirms the ranking.