Instrument 4 of 4 · S63 · Table 26

The cost ladder.

The paper's last headline numbers trace to a runnable source too: S63_lcoe_ladder.py, the deterministic generator for the Table-26 LCOE cells. The basis is stated, not hidden: CRF at your discount rate over 25 years, capacity factor 0.90, tiered O&M, and Wright's-law learning on FOAK capital. At the deposited defaults the gold dots reproduce the printed table. Then stress it — the curve answers instantly.

starting …
NOAK @ unit 20
—
$/MWh
@ unit 50
—
$/MWh

Capex classes: $6,500 (Mode B, low) · $9,000 (central) · $11,500 (Mode C, high) per kWe. O&M tiers with class: $19 / 19.5 / 21 per MWh — the deposited basis, verbatim.

Bands mean what they say The shaded $56–92/MWh band is the required-PPA envelope (§4.10 Monte Carlo, scenario-conditioned; the deterministic 8–12 % IRR corners span wider, 51–115, and the deposit says so). The grey $18–30 band is an analytical floor — a lower bound used to sanity-check the ladder, never a forecast or target: MetroVolt's economics are core-capital-limited, not floor-limited. All cost results are gated scenarios under stated learning assumptions, not forecasts. Source: the deposit, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21248916.
The writeup

The plain-language paper behind this instrument: The Honest Cost Ladder: FOAK $84–92 to Fleet $48–56 · Learning Curves That Pay: Wright’s Law from Unit 1 to Unit 50.

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