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Publication series 3 — Economics & Market

The Honest Cost Ladder: FOAK $84–92 to Fleet $48–56

One levelized-cost story, told the same way to physicists, financiers, and skeptics.

MetroVolt's economics are published as a ladder, not a point: first-of-a-kind at $84–92/MWh, an NOAK trajectory of $48–84 across capex scenarios, and fleet maturity at $48–56 — every rung generated by a deposited, runnable calculation.

The science

The ladder's engine is simple and stated: 7% WACC, 25-year amortization, 0.90 capacity factor, O&M-plus-fuel of $19–21/MWh tiered with capex class, and Wright's-law learning at 14.5% applied to first-of-a-kind capital of $6,500 / $9,000 / $11,500 per kWe (low / central / high). The nine NOAK-table cells that result — 55/52/48, 69/65/60, 84/79/72 across units 20/30/50 — reproduce from the deposited S63 script, deltas printed where rounding differs by a dollar.

A speculative long-run floor of $18–30/MWh is discussed in the series with its assumptions exposed; the ladder's committed rungs stop at fleet $48–56.

Why it matters

Fusion economics has a credibility problem built from single-point promises. A ladder with a runnable generator inverts that: the assumptions are the pitch. At the central trajectory MetroVolt meets firm-power markets on price without subsidies in the model — and every skeptic is one script away from checking.

The numbers

FOAK$84–92 / MWh
NOAK trajectory (units 20–50)$48–84 / MWh
Fleet maturity$48–56 / MWh
Basis7% WACC · 25-yr · CF 0.90 · LR 14.5%
GeneratorS63 script + CSV, deposited
Straight answersAll rungs are conditional on the physics gates and on capex realization; the FOAK capex range itself ($6,500–11,500/kWe) is the dominant uncertainty and is carried as three explicit scenarios.
Every figure in this paper traces to the openly deposited 81-simulation programme (S01–S81) behind the Kronos MetroVolt four-paper design series — data and code at DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21248916 (CC BY 4.0). Read the series, run the code, check us.
Kronos MetroVolt is a conceptual design study. Quantitative values are simulation-derived and carry the feasibility gates stated in the series; Tier-2 flagship-code confirmations are deposited as runnable decks pending HPC execution. This document is informational and is not an offer of securities. © 2026 Kronos Fusion Energy, Los Angeles.